Weekly Update: This is Why We Nowcast! A Solid Rebound
Dear all,
Thank you for your continued support and interest in Asgard-Steno Global Macro. We’ve had a strong start to the year, navigating challenging market conditions through our state-of-the-art nowcasting and return forecasting models.
Last week, our models turned net-negative early on, allowing us to capitalize on the sell-off in risk markets following the strong US labor market report. Our nowcasting gave us an edge here, as we accurately anticipated the report’s strength—contrary to the broader consensus. This is a testament to the power of our methodology, which also pinpointed the resilience in US inflation and growth through late December and January.
Additionally, our models captured a small rebound in Chinese demand for commodities, enabling us to profit from the recovery in commodities amid the broader sell-off in bonds and equities. At the same time, our nowcasts also identified the weakness in the GBP, driven by fiscal constraints and the turmoil in GBP bond markets.
We remain comfortably ahead of our performance comparisons and are on track to deliver strong returns through Q1. With a potentially hot US CPI report expected later this week, we’re well-positioned for what’s ahead.
Best wishes for the week ahead,
Andreas Steno
Chief Investment Officer, Asgard-Steno Global Macro
Chart: Return of ASGM versus performance comparisons
